Category Archives: S&P 500

Economy, Investing, S&P 500, Stock Markets

Stock Markets: Q3 Earnings Season Update

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Stock Markets: Q3 Earnings Season Update

Uncertainties concerning the US and China trade negotiations remain an issue affecting business performance in the US. Out of this concern, the Fed cut interest rate in October 2019 by 0.25 percent. In terms of growth, the US GDP grew at a rate of 1.9 percent against a market expectation of 1.6 percent. The growth is a slight decline from 2.0 percent realized in Q2 of 2019. However, consumption by households grew to 2.9 percent while government spending increased by 2 percent.

The US economy performed better in Q3 compared to the rest of the world, as both the fixed income and equities earning were positive. Below are two highlights from the US third-quarter earnings results.

Stock Market Earnings Were Better Than Expected

Many analysts had expressed reservations regarding the third-quarter performance due to the current global economic slowdown and the China-US trade wars. The actual results from the Q3 period indicate that the markets have appreciated. An Increase in consumer spending resulted in a better than expected GDP for the third quarter

The S& P 500 is considered a good indicator of US stocks and business performance. To date, 91 percent of companies in the S&P 500 have reported their earnings. Seventy-three percent of these companies have reported better than expected per share. Historically, an average of 56 percent of companies usually achieves better than expected EPS. In terms of sales, 60 percent of the companies have reported figures above estimates, which is above the five-year average. The S&P 500 is on an uptrend throughout the third quarter. It gained 1.7 percent in that period. The index is now up by 20.9 percent in 2019; it’s the best-run since 1997.

Despite the positive earning, some analysts viewed the earning as a mixed bag. The aggregate net income for the companies that have reported so far is lower than in the net income of the same companies in previous periods. However, revenue growth is in a range previously achieved by this group of companies. For these companies, net income is down by 0.6 percent, while revenues are up by 4.9 percent.

US Economy Resilience to Tariffs and Wage Inflation

Trade wars between china and the US have seen the two countries impose steep tariffs upon each other. The depreciation of the Chinese Yuan countered a recent decision by the US to apply tariffs on more Chinese imports. The twists and turns that have characterized trade negotiations with China have not impacted the Q3 earnings significantly as initially feared. Although manufacturing dipped in Q3 2019, businesses still reported increased revenues.

For several months, the average hourly rate has been increasing steadily. While unemployment at its lowest level in decades, the wage rate is rising at a faster pace than inflation. For Q3, the annualized weekly wage rate rose to 3.3 percent. The rise was an improvement of a 2 percent increase in the second quarter. The increase in wages has not affected profits and earning to warrant a freeze on employment or layoffs.

Conclusion

In Q3, the earnings in the US appreciated. A Majority of companies forming the S&P 500 have reported a higher than expected EPS, better sales than the forecasts, or both. Businesses have proved resilience to rising wages, and the uncertainty brought about China and US trade wars.

Economy, Market News, S&P 500

Economic Policy: Recent Fed Rates Cuts and Their Significance

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Economic Policy: Recent Fed Rates Cuts and Their Significance

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has the responsibility of implementing monetary policy on behalf of the US government by setting interest rates. When interest rates are low, capital is available, which stimulates economic growth. However, if unchecked, low-interest rates may lead to high inflation. High-interest rates create a situation of low money supply, which may cause a recession or even depression.

The Fed is required to maintain acceptable levels of unemployment between four to five percent while restricting inflation to figures around two percent. The Fed achieves this mandate by raising or lowering the fed overnight lending rates (the fed funds rates). At the end of October 2019, the fed decreased the fed funds rate to a target of between 1.5 to 1.75 percent. This is the third cut since July this year.

Why Did the Fed Cut Interest Rates?                    

By lowering the fed funds rate, the Fed aims at stimulating economic growth. The department of commerce has released data for the third quarter that shows GDP growth at a rate of 1.9 percent. Although the figures are better than the market expectation of 1.6 percent, it is a decline from the 2.0 percent growth in the previous quarter. The US growth is on a decline, in the third quarter of 2018, GDP growth was at 3.4 percent. The 1.9 percent growth rate is the slowest in 2019.

The October interest rates cut was more of a precautionary move. A majority of fed committee members believe that the US economy is reasonably strong. The current unemployment rate is the lowest in recent times. Consumer spending performed better than expected. The rates cut is a result of reduced investments and exports due to weakening global growth. The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates is to protect the US economy from the trade-war effects and global slowdown.

Importance of the Fed Funds Rate

The Central Bank of America monitors the performance of the US economy due to its significance to the global markets. Currently, the US is operating on a budget deficit meaning the economy is a net importer. Many countries across the globe depend on exports to the US for stability. Should the US economy underperform, many economies will be hurt. A recession in the US will adversely affect Canada, Mexico, Europe, and many other nations like it did in 2008-2009.

Significant volumes of investment instruments in the financial markets are US dollar-denominated. For this reason, the Fed has to worry about the economy, and by extension, the US dollar. The US dollar is of great importance in international investments and the flow of capital across borders.

Three Funds Rate Cuts: The Performance Connection in Bonds

Historically, three successive interest rates cuts have had positive effects on the performance of the bond market. Between 1995, 1996, and in 1997, there were three consecutive rate cuts and a pause. The S&P 500 returned 24 percent and 19 percent in those years. Where there had been an economic slowdown followed by three rate cuts and a stop, the economy always responds by accelerating. The October funds rate cut was the third in a row. Fortunately, the Fed has no intention of cutting the rates further soon. Going by precedence, the bond market is in line for better returns.

Conclusion

Data from the US economy is not giving a clear picture of the status of the economy. While there has been a decline in GDP growth, unemployment and inflation rates are within their targets. The rate cut will help address declining GDP growth and shield the US economy against the impact of the current trade wars. Bond investors should expect improved yields if history repeats itself.

S&P 500, Stock Markets

Economic Data Reports Send U.S. Stocks To Sustained Highs

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Economic Data Reports Send U.S. Stocks To Sustained Highs

Even with recent declines seen during the summer of 2019, the S&P 500 has managed to post a series of long-term higher highs that have defined an uptrend for the benchmark.

S&P 500
S&P 500

Recent jobs reports in the U.S. have been critical in terms of the implications they hold for the future monetary policy actions at the Federal Reserve.  Stock market valuations will continue to be influenced by interest rate policy changes that are made during the remainder of this year.

Consensus estimates suggest the U.S. economy added an average of roughly 150K jobs for each month of this year (down slightly from the 160K recorded in prior averages).  The national unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to hold at lower levels, which is a key indicator of economic strength.

On balance, the U.S. is still posting some very strong economic numbers and any positive surprises in the next few jobs reports will likely push the average consensus in analyst surveys closer to the long-term averages.  Current expectations for future rate hikes this calendar year remain questionable. However, all of these data figures will help to clarify some of these issues in the months ahead.

It will also be important to continue watching for developments in the U.S. ISM Services report, which has largely supported the bullish angle over the last year. With the readings that were posted for the last few months. This recent decline from the previous month’s readings may appear ominous but we are still coming off of figures that represent a 12-year high. 

As a result, some declines were reasonably expected in the analyst surveys. Markets have still managed to trade higher after these prior releases on the argument that this long-term strength does bode well for the upcoming nonfarm payrolls figures coming out in the months ahead.

The services sector represents 70% of the US economy and these reports cover businesses like retailers, hospitals, and restaurants. Numbers above 50 signal expansion in the economy, and readings above 55 are considered “exceptional.” We are firmly above those levels, and this helps tip the odds in favor of a bullish data surprise for payrolls reports that follow.

The ISM indexes for new orders have recently seen gains of 64.8 (from 62.7 previously, marking another long-term high). All told, 16 of 17 of the industries that are tracked in the report are showing strong evidence of expansion. This is highly encouraging for the underlying trend in the U.S. economy, as it shows companies are actually having difficulties with skilled labor shortages.

Supply costs have also been seen rising in the recent reports and this brings us back to the potential market disruptions that could be caused by the implementation of a trade war.  As labor costs also move higher, we are looking at a scenario that is essentially ripe for upside inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy.

Market News, S&P 500, Stock Markets

Federal Reserve: Rising Risks for Recession in 2019?

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Federal Reserve: Rising Risks for Recession in 2019?

In the last few months, the financial markets have experienced rising volatility.  This activity has left many consumers on edge and wondering about the best ways to protect their assets.  Recent commentaries from the Federal Reserve have also highlighted a growing possibility that the U.S. economy will experience recessionary conditions as early as next year.  

Not surprisingly, this has already ignited speculation amongst some analysts that the current environment could be causing another financial collapse similar to what was seen during the 2008 financial crisis.  

Of course, much of this speculation is still premature as growth numbers throughout the U.S. remain robust and consumer spending levels are firmly above those which characterized the periods following the credit crunch a decade ago.  But there are still factors which households and individual consumers should consider when making plans for investment or spending money as part of a daily routine.

Effects of Interest Rates and Rising Consumer Costs

In all of the chatter (which has drawn similarities between the financial environment of 2008 and the financial environment of 2018), many people have neglected the ways higher interest rates could impact economic growth —at both the micro and macro levels.  

But this might turn out to the most critical factor which has changed the market this year. The prospect of higher interest rates can have a major impact on the economics of the stock market and this type of activity has already cost investors a great deal of money with respect to this year’s investment returns.

Additionally, higher interest rates can make large purchases more expensive for households.  For example, mortgage lending rates have risen to their highest levels in years and similar trends can be seen in the costs associated with the ability to buy a new automobile.  

For those that are able to buy a home or a car outright, these types of scenarios have limited impact on spending practices. But the majority of households and consumers do not fall into this category and this means that an environment of rising interest rates will have a very real impact on the financial health of most people.

U.S. Economics: Focusing on What Matters

For all of these reasons, it is important for us to focus on what matters and it is never a good idea to dismiss the underlying trends which are being developed by the Federal Reserve.  These are concepts which might seem to be abstract and esoteric. But this could not be further from the truth, as steadily rising interest rates have a very real impact on the ways we structure our long-term purchases.

Since the continued prospects of higher interest rates make large purchases more expensive, it might make sense to complete some of these purchases before the rate cycle reaches its maximum peak.  So, for example, if a family is considering putting off the purchase of a new home until next year, it might actually make more sense to speed-up the timeline and consider alternative options sooner.  

Stock Markets: Long Term Economic Trends

In the long run, these types of decision planning practices can have a substantial impact on the monthly payment and total costs which are required of us. Most financial decisions which are made quickly and impatiently tend to cost more over the long-term, and when we make too many of these decisions it is all too common to see the final outcome rest in bankruptcy.

This is why macroeconomic changes matter and the daily fluctuations in the financial news headlines usually do not matter (at least, not as much).  With this in mind, consumers can probably look past the speculation that a financial collapse is around the corner. But this does not imply the economy “without risk” is an accurate depiction of the current landscape.

Dividend Stocks, Financial Stocks, S&P 500, Stock Markets

Citigroup: Stock Undeterred by a Hefty Tax Charge of $22 Billion

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Citigroup: Stock Undeterred by a Hefty Tax Charge of $22 Billion

As a global banking leader for more than 20 years, Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) posted a net income (on an operating basis) of $15.8bn in 2017 with an EPS of $1.28, 12% higher from 2016. This was the first time since the financial crisis of 2008 where earnings are more than their expectations.

The stock rallied to an all-time 10 year high of $80 on January 26, 2018. Total revenues in 2017 were up by 2%. Citi took a one time charge of $22bn (including $3bn in the repatriation of foreign funds) due to the Republican tax reform policy.

Citi stock is a favorite for shareholders and prospective investors as it has a steady EPS growth and is the cheapest of all banking stocks in the market. It is by far the largest of the top 10 banks in terms of EPS growth and P/E (according to Bloomberg Consensus). In terms of valuation, its stock is trading at a 22% discount and has a growing yield in its Corporate and Treasury bonds.

Source: Google Finance

With a good performance in 2017, it is now noticeable that Citi has come out the volatile period of revenue growth. Even after getting hit by a $22bn tax charge, Citigroup stock rose by 1%, as it delivered good performance excluding the charge. The new tax rate will give a boost to its profits.

Along with this, Citigroup CEO has reiterated on its promise of returning at least $60bn to investors in the next few years through buyback and dividends.

Citigroup Dividends: An Interesting Tale

Citigroup Dividend History
Citigroup Dividend History

On January 18, 2018, Citigroup doubled its dividend of $0.16 to $0.32 after receiving Fed approval for its $15.6bn share buyback program. This is the largest ever share repurchase announced by Citi since its 2005 buyback of $15bn. In June 2016, Citigroup had boosted its dividends to $0.16 from $0.05 – a total three-fold rise.

Prior to the financial depression in 2008-09, Citigroup was known for paying high dividends to the tune of $5.4 per share. During the crisis, it slashed its dividend down to $0.1 in February 2009 and did not pay any till June 2011. Post this, it kept its payout at a minuscule $0.01 till 2015 when it finally raised it to $0.05. Its current dividend yield is 1.88% and shareholders can expect an upward momentum in his regard.

Where Does Citi Stand with other Top Banks?

Source: NASDAQ

Comparing Citigroup with Bank of America, both have performed well in terms of their stock rise in 2017. Citigroup has increased 15% while Bank of America has grown by 26%. Citi’s forward earnings multiple is less than 10 while BAC is at 11%. Both banks provide a decent dividend yield of more than 1.5%, with Citi’s slightly higher at 1.87%. This makes Citigroup a better buy.

The impending trade war due to Trump’s policy also had an impact on Citigroup shares due to its geographic exposures (it has banking licenses in more than 100 countries). Hence, its stock growth was down last year compared to JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).

Dividend Stocks, S&P 500

Intel Corporation: Stock Set to Rally as it Outperforms all Expectations

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Amidst a lackluster stock market, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has been displaying strength enough to attract prospective investors. As of March 25, 2018, the Intel stock is trading 40% up year-to-date with reports of strong chip sales and improvement in the buying ratings by analytical firms.

In Q4 2017, Intel posted its operating income of $5.9bn, the highest ever in over two years. Its non-GAAP EPS was $1.08, which was 36.7% higher than the year-ago quarter. Due to the Republican tax reform, the company incurred a one-time expense of $5.4bn and posted a GAAP loss of 15 cents per share. Revenue for Q4 was $17.2bn (up by 8%) and for the full year was $62.8bn (up by 9%). It generated a cash flow of $22bn and returned $9bn to its shareholders by increasing its dividend by 10% on an annual basis.

How has the stock been performing?

Source: Google Finance

Intel stock has been rallying since the beginning of 2017 with a YTD growth of 44% (as on March 26). The market for computers has been slowing down, however, it has not much impacted Intel as the company is also growing in cloud data centers. The revenue for data centers grew by 21% in Q4 2017.

At the beginning of 2018, the stock dropped by 15% due to security threats and Intel processor bugs (found in chips) which left millions prone to a cyber attack. It led stock prices down to $42. However, its strong quarter Q4 results led the stock up by 15% to $52 in March 2018.

The stock for Intel has been growing after every quarter earnings release leading to a total stock gain in the past few months. Even though the computer market is on a slowdown in the recent years, the laptop market has grown substantially. The growth in the Smart phones industry also helped Intel as mobile devices are also dependent on data centers, and Intel is foraying in this market at a break neck pace. Analysts at Citi Research gave a ‘buy’ rating to the INTC stock expecting the firm to post strong profits in 2018.

Is Intel a healthy Dividend stock?

Source: NASDAQ

On March 15, 2018, Intel declared a dividend of $0.30 per share payable on June 1, 2018. The stock has a dividend yield of 2.35% which is greater than S&P 500 yield of 1.78%. In the past five years, Intel’s quarterly dividend rate has grown by 33%. It started paying dividends in 1993 but has not cut the dividend even during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis. Shareholders have a greater advantage with Intel stock as the dividend hike is accompanied by stock price rise too.

Intel has a cash flow of $22bn and it paid a dividend of $5.1bn in 2017. This gives a payout ratio of 23.1% and leaves room for more dividend hikes in the future. With growing revenues and earnings, shareholders can be sure that the upward momentum will support the stock price rally and discreet investors can lock in capital gains.

Where does Intel Corp stand in the Top 10 stocks of the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index (DJUSTC)?

S&P 500

As Consumers Move toward Healthier Beverages, The Coca-Cola Company Struggles to up the Ante

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As Consumers Move toward Healthier Beverages, The Coca-Cola Company Struggles to up the Ante

Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), the premier multinational beverages company has found itself struggling with maintaining its revenue growth. Due to ongoing re-franchising of its bottling territories, its net revenue ($7.5bn) declined by 20% in Q4 2017 and by 15% for full-year 2017.  It earned 39 cents per share for the same period. However, for Q4 it beat analyst estimates who predicted revenue of $7.37bn and an EPS of 38 cents. Cash flow from operations stood at $7.0 billion (down 20%) while $3.7bn worth of shares were repurchased for the treasury.

Coca-Cola posted better than expected fourth quarter results with organic growth of 6% from the year-ago period and 3% growth for the full year period. This momentum is encouraging for the investors considering the fact that the overall non-alcoholic beverage industry was down in 2017. It also expanded its product portfolio by entering the ready-to-drink coffee category in the US and shifted two local US brands (Honest and Smartwater) to international markets. Expansion of portfolio resulted in stronger revenue growth, for e.g. 5% growth in the EMEA operating segment.

Source: Yahoo Finance

What are some recent developments that would rake in shareholder value?

  1. Coca-Cola announced a new initiative called ‘World Without Waste’ in January 2018, under which it announced new sustainable packaging goals that focuses on its package design to ensure its products are 100% recyclable.
  2. To accelerate the consumer-centric portfolio, it expanded its ‘Venturing and Emerging Brands’ initiative to Central and Eastern Europe.
  3. It has planned to reduce its gross debt level by $7bn with its overseas cash which will now be repatriated in line with the tax reform act (which led to a one-time charge of $3.6bn in Q4 2017)

Source: Google Finance

The Coca-Cola stock is trading at a flat 0.5% YTD as on 24th March 2018.Compared to PepsiCo and S&P 500, Coca-Cola’s stock growth was low at 9%. This was primarily due to constant decline in the net revenue for the past 10 quarters. In Q4 2017, the net sales dropped by 20%.

A noticeable drop of ~20% can be seen in May 2016 during the time when the company restructured its ownership by merging with its European peers. However, this was a temporary blip as the shares went up by 13% in the next six months.

Source: Yahoo Finance. Comparison with PepsiCo (PEP) & S&P 500 Index

Compared with its rival, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola has been able to drive more earnings to its bottom line. Even though Coca-Cola net revenue has been declining, it has higher margins of 15-18% compared with PepsiCo’s 10%. On the dividend side, however, PepsiCo has posted an average of 10%, while Coca-Cola has an increase of 8.5%. Both the companies have dividend yield much higher than the S&P 500 index.

A Dividend King

In 2017, Coca-Cola boosted its annual dividend by 5.4% (from $1.48 to $1.56). Its current quarterly dividend amount of $0.39 yields 3.69% with a payout ratio of 74.6%. In 2017, it paid $6.3bn in dividends and $2bn through share buyback. For 2018, it has planned to return $6.7bn in dividends and $1bn in share-buyback.

As the biggest beverage company in the world with a market cap of $184bn, Coca-Cola has also established itself as a Dividend King (and a Dividend Aristocrat) by annually raising its dividend for more than 50 years. Even though the growth rate has come down in the recent years due to headwinds in the beverages industry, Coca-Cola remains an attractive stock for prudent and discreet investors.

Dividend Stocks, S&P 500

Time to add Johnson & Johnson to your Portfolio as Sales Projected to Grow despite Headwinds

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Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), the global healthcare behemoth, posted Q4 2017 revenue of $20.2bn (an increase of 11.5%) and 2017 full-year earnings of $76.5bn (an increase of 6.3%) on January 23, 2018. Diluted loss per share was $3.99 (adjusted diluted EPS was $1.74 which was an increase of 10.1% compared to Q4 2016); while diluted EPS for 2017 full-year was $0.47 (adjusted diluted EPS was $7.36 which was an increase of 8.5%). The decrease was primarily due to the provisional charge of $13.6bn which was incurred due to the Republican tax reform. Free cash flow in 2017 was $17.8bn.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Exceeding the expectations set at the beginning of 2017, Johnson & Johnson also gave a total shareholder return of 24% with its Pharmaceutical business and Medical Device business showing great strengths. During 2017, it completed around 60 acquisitions and invested $10.5bn in R&D and $35bn in Mergers & Acquisitions. It also executed four divestitures as a part of its business fortification strategy.

Investment Outlook

Source: Google Finance

As the above chart shows, the J&J stock rallied to all-time highs of $147 in January 2018 before falling down 13% to around $127 in March 2018. It went to its highs during 2017 due to its product launches, positive clinical data, and strong Q3 2017 results. However, it declined by 13% in February 2018 due to the following reasons:

  • Q4 2017 results showed negative earnings due to the tax reform act
  • Sales decline in some of its drugs, baby care division, and specialty surgery
  • Talcum powder lawsuits since last year

As per the latest survey by Reuters, J&J stock has received a ‘buy’ or ‘strong buy’ rating from 52% of its analysts and a ‘hold’ rating from 35% of them.

However, looking toward 2018, Johnson & Johnson stock can be seen as a good investment for prospective shareholders due to the following reasons:

  1. With $10.5bn investment in Research & Development, J&J would also be tapping on the developing markets across the world.
  2. J&J’s forward price to earnings ratio is 18.5, lesser than the S&P 500 stock ratio, which makes it a good quality buy.
  3. With a presence in over 60 countries and a massive healthcare division, J&J is uniquely positioned to gain from economies of scale.

Dividend Outlook

As a Dividend Aristocrat, J&J has raised its dividend for consecutive 55 years and now has a yield of 2.5%. The dividend payout ratio stands at around 60%. In 2017, it spent $8.9bn in dividends – i.e. 50% of its free cash flow of $17.8bn. It paid its latest dividend of $0.84 on March 13, 2018. The 5% annual dividend increase for 2017 is low compared to the last eight years (last two annual increases were 6.7% in 2016 and 7.1% in 2015).

Even though J&J is using its cash flow to improve shareholder value, it is also being prudent with the way it manages its finances. Looking at the string of mergers and acquisitions conducted over the past few years, it seems that it would be offsetting these costs by balancing its dividend payout. This could be a reason for a decrease in annual dividend growth. However, all in all, its robust dividend payout despite the future challenges makes it a reliable stock in a prudent investor’s portfolio.

How Does JNJ Stock Compare with the Top Healthcare stocks in the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index (DJUSHC)?

Dividend Stocks, S&P 500

Pfizer, Inc: As Earnings Improve, Pharmaceutical Giant’s Stock Shows a Positive Move

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Since its inception in 1849, Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE) has introduced game-changing medicines in the market. In the past few years, the pharmaceutical giant has garnered confidence amongst shareholders and prospective investors by delivering a string of robust medicines which have contributed to its annual revenue. In Q4 2017, Pfizer’s Eliquis raked in $170m in revenue which was 46% higher than the year-ago figure, while Chantix-Champix contributed $271m in revenue which was 28% higher than the year-ago figure.

Pfizer had a satisfactory result in 2017 when it posted gains of 2% (y-o-y) in its revenue for Q4 2017 ($13.7bn) and Year-end 2017 ($52.5bn). Its diluted Q4 EPS of 62 cents beat Wall Street estimates of 56 cents per share. Compared to Q4 2016, Pfizer’s Innovative Health unit, which contributes 60% of the revenue, grew by 6% in Q4 2017 ($8.2bn); while Essential Health segment, which contributes the remaining 40%, declined by 7% in Q4 2017 ($5.5bn). Its overall revenue was negatively impacted by $2bn as it lost marketing exclusivity rights for some of its drugs like Enbrel, Pristiq, Viagra, Lyrica, and Vfend.

Source: Yahoo Finance

With the passage of the new tax reform act, Pfizer expects a $15bn tax bill over eight years (effective tax rate of 17%) and plans to invest approximately $5.6bn in capital projects, employee bonuses, and pension plans. Considering that it also has a strong portfolio of robust growth drugs, shareholders can remain bullish on Pfizer stock.

Source: Google Finance

Pfizer’s stock has experienced ups and downs during the past decade due to the loss of patent exclusivity of some of its top-selling drugs. In 2012, the sales dropped by 10% when it lost the patent battle for Lipitor, the cholesterol fighter drug. This also led to underperformance in terms of market share, revenue and net income growth. However, in recent years the company has benefitted from its targeted acquisitions, namely,

  • Acquisition of the development and commercialization rights of the EU drug Zavicefta™, Merrem™/Meronem™ and Zinforo™ from AstraZeneca in December 2016 for $1,045m
  • Acquisition of Medivation in September 2016 for $14.3bn
  • Acquisition of Anacor in June 2016 for $4.9bn
  • Acquisition of Hospira in September 2015 for $16.1bn

In 2017, the stock grew roughly by 17% due to gains in its robust drug pipeline. If the 2018 guidance is followed through, we can safely predict stocks to reach $40 by the third quarter of 2018.

Why should you choose to stay with Pfizer stock?

Pfizer’s dividend is the primary reason. Its current dividend yield of 3.7% is above the industry’s average of 3.2% and the S&P’s 2.0%. In its recent announcement, Pfizer increased the dividend by 6% (from $0.32 to $0.34 paid on March 1, 2018) which marks the 317th quarterly dividend paid by the company. In addition to this, it has increased it in the past nine consecutive years.

For fiscal 2017, it reported free cash flows of $14.25 billion. $7.66 billion was paid as dividends and $5bn as share buybacks which means that Pfizer at present has a free cash flow dividend payout ratio of around 53%. The broad pipeline of products under its umbrella and its strong dividend payment are reasons for investors to consider Pfizer as a reliable stock.

Dividend Stocks, S&P 500

Procter & Gamble: Poised to Race Ahead as Brand Divestitures and Cost Productivity Measures Pays Off

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Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) stock had slid 9.92% in February 2018 after its Q2 2018 earnings release on January 23, 2018. A tantalizing problem for this Household and Consumer products giant was its performance in terms of market share. For blades and razors, the share was down to 65% from 70% in 2014 while grooming products dropped by 0.7%.

As revealed in its 2017 fiscal year-end results, the overall market share was declining across each of its core product categories. With regards the competitive edge, P&G is not immune to the intense headwinds in the market which has brought stagnancy to its top line growth in the recent years. Its market share was also impacted due to the niche operators in the household sector. However, the situation is now improving as can be seen from its 2% rise in organic sales.

Source: Google Finance

The Q2 2018 results beat Wall Street estimates as it posted revenue of $17.40bn against the expected $17.39bn and a core EPS of $1.19 (including $0.05 benefit from the tax reform) against the expected $1.14. Net sales for the quarter were up by 3% against the year-ago figure while the gross margin slid by 60 basis points. The Republican tax reform brought in $135m in benefits costing a net charge of $628m. Cash flow from operating activities was $7.4bn.

Across the Household & Personal Care sector, P&G has an attractive dividend yield of 3.44% and a 5-year growth rate of 4.77%. It has been paying a dividend for the past 127 years and has increased the dividend for 61 consecutive years. The current yield of P&G is higher than the average yield of the top 15 Personal products stocks which is at 1.93%. In Q2 2018, it repurchased $1.8bn shares and spent the same value in dividends, thus resulting in a total of $3.6bn returned to shareholders.

The dividend would increase in the coming years too as P&G has been adopting a robust cost-saving plan coupled with its re-focus on core brands post its brand divestitures since 2014 (the number of brands was reduced to 65 from 170). This uninterrupted distribution of dividend has partially offset the recent drop in the stock prices.

P&G Annual Dividends (Source: NASDAQ)

Why can investors be hopeful for P&G?

Prospective investors can be prudent to invest in P&G due to its core operating profit margin of 22%. Since the company has scaled down on its brands in the last five years, it has been able to focus on higher returns; and with competitive pricing, it has been able to improve its profit margin. Now, with the appointment of Nelson Peltz (effective March 1, 2018) to its Board of Directors after a long proxy fight, investors are hopeful for a greater impact.

Comparing it with its close competitor Unilever, P&G has a better Dividend yield and has a higher payout ratio. Unilever’s annualized dividend fell in 2015, while P&G has seen a sustained increase, thus making it a better stock in a prudent investor’s portfolio.

In order to fund its sales and continue its pace of growth, productivity improvements are essential. Its supply chain financing program has generated over $4bn in cash in the past four years. The management has saved $10bn in the past four years and has projected to save the same amount in the next four years- all in all- leading to sustained growth. The stock will see a sure turnaround if it continues this initiative.