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Pros and Cons of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Pros and Cons of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Most investors care about one thing when it comes to choosing a company to put their investment: cash. The cash flow of a company is important for investors because it is the basis for the possible amount of money they are going to receive. For that reason, an appropriate approach has to be followed to devise a sensible investment decision. 

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation is a mathematical technique in gauging the appeal of an investment on a company based on its potential cash flows in the future. This evaluation method helps to determine the value of a company today which must be derived from the capability of a company to continuously generate cash stream in the coming years. Analysts exert efforts to construct projections on the financial performance of a company with the aim of weighing up its value. Aside from the individual investments, discounted cash flow valuation scrutinizes the projects that the investors or the company can maneuver. 

The present value of projected future cash flows requires a discount rate for discounted cash flows valuation. The company’s estimated present value is needed in order to thoroughly assess a possible investment. The potential investment could be taken into account once the present value computed using the discounted cash flows analysis is proven to be greater than the cost of the investment today.

The discounted cash flow valuation is advantageous for investors from the fact that the present value of a company can be used for them to estimate the future cash flows that an investment or a project can bring. Investors must consider not only the investment but also the ending value of pieces of equipment and other assets for them to accurately appraise the potential cash flows in performing the discounted cash flow valuation. 

But before you depend on this valuation method, we are going to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using discounted cash flow valuation. This is for you to determine if this method is appropriate for the company and to assess the extent to which you can rely on this valuation method.

Discounted Cash Flow Advantages:

  • A Practical Instrument to Back Up Value Prices Issued by Analysts

There are a lot of aspects that influence discounted cash flow analysis such as profit margins and future sales growth. The valuation method takes account of the discount rate affected by the risk-free rate of interest. Discounted cash flow analysis regards the company’s cost of capital and potential risks to its share prices as essential steps from this valuation method. For you to estimate the company’s share price precisely, these factors cannot be overlooked because these will give ideas about the different elements that influence a company’s value. 

  • Dependability and Precision

According to corporate finance textbook authors Peter DeMarzo and Jonathan Berk, “the most accurate and reliable” valuation method for constructing a sensible investment decision is by using discounted cash flow analysis to decrease investments to net present value. Although some results on computing using this process are doubtful, there is no existing valuation technique that can be as reliable as the discounted cash flow analysis in assessing the investment which provides the greatest value for the company. 

  • Focuses on a Single Figure

One of the benefits of applying the discounted cash flow model is that it uses a particular value to represent an investment. This valuation method aids to rationally decide upon different investments. If the discounted cash flow model concluded a negative result, the company can have a possibility to incur losses due to the investment; if it leads to a positive outcome, the investment has the capability to bring successful cash inflow and can be considered by the company. The analyst shall forecast the cash flows from the investment, discount it to the present value, combine them all, and systematically weigh them up. The most lucrative choice is the one that has the greatest present value.

  • Reliability on Free Cash Flows

For investors, discounted cash flow analysis is the only valuation method that depends on free cash flows. Free cash flows are the cash of a company gained from its operation, decreased by the cost of expenditures on assets that is why it is a reliable measurement of money allotted to the investors. It is also a good basis of valuation because it disregards the independent accounting policies and manipulation of financial statements related to reported earnings. Free cash flow is essential for the discounted cash flow valuation since it helps to determine the companies that have high open costs that have a probability to impact earnings today but has the capability to escalate earnings eventually. In addition to that, free cash flow exposes the capacity of a company to satisfy its obligations, stabilize its growth, and distribute dividends. 

  • Validation Purposes

The discounted cash flow method is commonly used to easily assess whether the current share price is reasonable or not. As an alternative to approximating the intrinsic value, the current stock price is applied upon the discounted cash flow valuation model. By working in reverse, the valuation model will reveal if the company stock price is overvalued or undervalued. 

  • Business Strategy Construction

Other valuation techniques have limited data that restrain them from being exploited by devising business strategies. Investors can maximize the use of the discounted cash flow model by considering it as one of the bases for significant alterations to the business strategy.

Discounted Cash Flow Disadvantages:

  • Complexity 

The risk in employing the discounted cash flow model is deciding what cash flows to be discounted while the investment is complicated and substantial, or the unfamiliarity of the investors about the future cash flows. This valuation method is important for investors since it is based on cash flows offered for the new shareholders. A weak value is constantly implied when the method is based on the distributed dividends to a small group of shareholders.

  • If Widely Employed 

If the discounted cash flow is used excessively and outside its coverage, it may lead to unreliable presumptions. Continuously fluctuating amounts relevant to the valuation method may nullify the analysis once an investment or a project has commenced.

  • If Relevant Data are Inaccessible

As minority shareholders, they lack information about a company’s cash flows and projects needed to form assumptions for the discounted cash flow valuation since they don’t have any control from it. Therefore, this valuation method will not be beneficial for these investors. 

  • Susceptible to Appraisal Mistakes

The discounted cash flow valuation is a powerful instrument from the fact that it covers a broad range that covers the data for estimation. The model is prone to different kinds of errors. If estimated figures are fallacious, the net present value might be erroneous as well. Therefore, the model is impractical to use since it may cause an investor to form poor investing assessments and decisions. The valuation method is achieved by constructing forecasts. The cash flow of a company is required to be forecasted by an analyst. But that process cannot be attained only by just guessing because the data will be unreliable. The cash flow projection must still be based on significant pieces of evidence. In addition to that, the discount rate on the discounting formula must be estimated. The specific total cash changes periodically have to be presumed in order to get the discounted rate. 

If the discounted cash flow valuation is too complicated for the investors to understand and to maximize as a basis for their investment decisions, the method will not be significant. Hence, alternative techniques have to be utilized. But if you try to study the method with the help of qualified valuation accountants, you can thoroughly scrutinize companies for long-term investing. 

 

Enterprise Valuation Techniques: Determining a Company’s Total Worth

Enterprise Valuation Techniques: Determining a Company’s Total Worth

The companies that have the potential to be successful entice investors to venture their capital to them. Although, a slothful evaluation with these robust companies always comes with a price. Investors must scrutinize thoroughly if these companies are worth buying for.

Company Valuation is an overall system of thoroughly appraising the economic value of an entire business. Company Valuation is used in order to estimate the fair market value of a business for several purposes. Aside from buying and selling shares, the process in determining an enterprise’s value is also beneficial in settling disagreements concerning taxation, distribution of business acquisition value with business assets, shareholder or partnership interests, and divorce proceedings. There are several useful techniques that can be utilized for company valuation depending on what aspect of that company you want to focus on such as: discounted cash flow valuation, times revenue method, market capitalization, liquidity valuation, valuation by share price, valuation by comparing companies, valuation through financial ratios, asset-based valuation, and earnings-multipliers.

Company valuation is a complicated financial evaluation that must be done by qualified valuation accountants awarded with a professional designation. This process will give aid especially to owners who are reaching a deal in selling their company and investors who are willing to buy a business. In this article, we are going to discuss the different methods in calculating an enterprise’s worth to raise awareness on how and why these methods are used. 

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Discounted Cash Flow is a method of appraising the worth of a company through forecasting its forthcoming cash flows. Through this valuation technique, sequences of assumptions are used in concluding cash flows forecasts regarding the potential performance of a company. Subsequently, the projected company performance will be interpreted to forecast the possible cash flow provided as a result of the operations of the company. 

This technique estimates the enterprise’s value by means of the Net Present Value method. NPV method is a contemporary way of assessing investment offers. This technique is based on the time value of money which estimates the return on investment by considering the factor of the time element. Using the NPV method, cash flows of the investment projected must be logically assumed. Correct discounts are recognized in the NPV method in order to mark down cash flows. For you to calculate the present value of cash flows, the opportunity cost must be considered as the discount rate.

Discounted Cash Flow has been used in most situations because it calculates the company’s value with accuracy. Therefore it is the most reliable valuation technique that exists today. Despite all of that, the DCF method also comes with some risks.

Why Discounted Cash Flow Should Be Analyzed

Valuation through the use of the Discounted Cash Flow method is beneficial for the owners since the cash of a company is what they are mainly concerned about. The DCF method help makes assumptions regarding the future cash flow to be generated by a company. Despite the affirmative earnings, a company that has unstable liquidity will not be attractive for investors since it is unable to pay off its obligations. 

Valuation Methods: Revenue Multiples

The Times Revenue method is a business valuation technique useful for estimating a company’s worth. For this method, the basis of verifying the highest value of a company is the multiple of the current revenue in which affected by a variety of factors such as the status of the industry in which the company belongs and its macroeconomic setting. Under this method, a company is valued on the range between 2 revenue multiples.

For example, a company that gained revenue worth $2 million for the current year is valued between 2x to 4x revenue. Therefore, it will have a total value of between $4 million to $8 million. 

Why Revenue Multiples Should Be Analyzed

The Times Revenue method may appear for some as an unreliable valuation technique in determining the current value of a company. The reason behind the doubt in using this method is that the continuous revenue growth does not indicate profitability growth. Despite its undependability, this method is advantageous for financial analysis in which the revenue is used as an independent variable and its limitations are manageable for complex analysis purposes. Thus, the Times Revenue method is still favorable for buyers because it estimates the purchase price offered by them.

Market Capitalization

Market Capitalization is the most uncomplicated and the easiest method you can understand since this determines the worth of a company based on the total value of all the company’s stocks. This technique is used in estimating a company’s value by simply multiplying the company’s number of outstanding shares to the price per share. For instance, a company is selling 100,000 outstanding shares for $50 per share. Therefore, the company could be appraised at $5 million.

Why Market Capitalization Should Be Analyzed

If you want to compare companies, this valuation method will be reliable in evaluating their relative size because it measures its value on the open market. In addition, it allows predicting its potential growth in the future and helps to determine risks in obtaining which makes the method a dependable basis for investors who are interested in buying shares of stock. 

Risks Using Market Capitalization

Although the Market capitalization is the simplest method, this is not the most effective way to appraise a company’s value because the share price is only based on the declared value in which the real value of the company may not be considered. Your evaluation of business might be put in jeopardy if you rely exclusively on this valuation technique. These are the reasons why depending on the Market Capitalization alone will bring uncertain company valuation results:

  1. The share price is constructed through the foreseeable positive outcome of an upcoming set of products of a company. These newly-launched products might end up as a failure and will result in a decrease in the share price.
  2. The share price might be based on an inaccurate forecast about the development of the company. The mistakes on the company’s projection might be the result of taking it as an insignificant part of the valuation. 
  3. The share price is based on the historical growth in which the company expects to continue. Using solely the past development of a company is a slothful way of estimating a company’s value.
  4. The share price is being relied on news reports or rumors that are unnecessary in completing the company valuation. 
  5. The share price is irrelevant to the company’s value if it is being traded inactively. 

Liquidation Value

Liquidation Value is a way of measuring the value of a company once it is bankrupt or shutting down its business. An enterprise’s worth is determined using this valuation technique by getting the amount of its cash after selling off all its assets and settling all its obligations. However, Liquidation Value is against the going concern principle which is about the presumption that a business has to continue its operation for the foreseeable future or at least 12 months.

Why Liquidation Value Should Be Analyzed

If a company is projected or planning to wind up in a span of 12 months, the Liquid Valuation is a reliable and acceptable method from the fact that it does not violate the going concern principle. 

Company Stock Comparisons

Comparing companies within the same industry is one of the useful techniques in measuring a company’s value. Considering the share price of the companies sold before is an effective way to estimate your price per share. On the other hand, applying this company valuation method also has drawbacks:

  1. You may find comparing indistinguishable companies complicated from the fact that modification on the calculations has to be done in order to identify their distinctions.
  2. The sales of a company are not equivalent to another company.
  3. The sales report of the companies has to be up to date in order for the current fair market value to be concluded.

Share Prices and Financial Ratios 

The shares undervalued by the market are attractive for value investors. They are executing this kind of game plan because they think that the underpriced valuation of the market is its exaggerated response from either good or bad news. Therefore, companies trade their shares less than intrinsic or book value. The underestimated shares by the market give value investors an opportunity to buy the shares of a company because of the shares’ future earnings power. Here are the practical financial ratios that will provide aid for company valuation:

  1. Price-Earnings Ratio – This ratio reveals the link between the fair market value per share and the earnings per share. It is also known as the Earnings- Multiplier method. Since a company’s profit is a more precise basis of financial performance than sales revenue, this method is frequently used to get the exact company value than the Times Revenue method. It is calculated as market value divided by the earnings per share.
  2. Price-Book Value Ratio – This ratio reflects the relationship between the market value and the book value per share. It is computed as market value divided by the book value per share.
  3. Price-Sales Ratio – The price to sales ratio determines the percentage appraised by the company per dollar of the sales. It is computed as market capitalization (or the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the price per share) divided by the total sales over the past 12 months. 
  4. Price-Cash flow Ratio – This ratio measures the correlation between the market value per share and the generated cash flow. To calculate the ratio, get the company’s market capitalization and divide it by the operating cash flow for the past 12 months. 
  5. Price/Earnings-Growth (PEG) Ratio – The PEG ratio finds out the proportion between the Price/Earnings Ratio and the projected earnings growth of a company for the given years. To get the ratio, take the Price-per-Earnings ratio and divide it by the expected earnings-per-share growth. 

Asset-Based Valuation Using the Going Concern Approach

Just like the Liquidation Value, this method uses a simple formula in order to get the value of a company. The only difference is that the going concern approach supposed that the company will continue its operation without being at risk of liquidation. This method calculates the fair market value of the total assets including intangible assets such as trademarks and patents. 

However, the way how intangible assets are being measured is different from the valuation of the other assets. The value of marketable securities already has a determined fixed value. The intangible assets are appraised under the discretion of the company which might result in overvaluation.  The techniques mentioned are the commonly-used company valuation method in the present day. These methods are known from their dependability towards precise valuation. The methods that are also useful include breakup value, replacement value, and a lot more.